First, understand the monetary logic behind the birth of a global bull market in asset classes.

There is only one prerequisite for a global bull market in any broad asset class: a sustained flow of money into it

With this logic in mind, let's take a look at China's last big asset bull market -- real estate bull market

2004Years ago, when the housing price in China was only one tenth of the current level, ordinary people were not willing to take out loans to buy a house, because ordinary people would live in the cognitive inertia of the previous era, yes2000For the Chinese people before 2000, the perception of housing was still unit allocation, or self-built housing, and they used debt to buy a house. At that time, it was difficult for Chinese people to turn the corner. Of course, if someone who can travel through time told you that today's housing price has increased by more than 10 times, what would it be like? So much so that the government directly introduced the "zero down payment" policy to encourage people to go into debt into real estate. This round of real estate bull market, driven by various encouraging policies of the state, continues to rise. Until today, this round of real estate bull market has come to an end under the repeated oppression of the state...

Notice that today's people have formed a cognitive consensus under the bull market in real estate. People who have been used to real estate to make money. with2000Perceptions of allotment housing and self-built housing were the same before 2000. Few people emerge from this collective understanding. However, the era is brewing a huge upgrading and transformation, and this upgrading and transformation, still need the continued support of the currency flow. The state is directing money from all directions to a new area, and that area isAThe stock market, why? The reasons are as follows:

First, China's real estate sector, already burdened with extremely high debt leverage from the private sector, local governments and real estate enterprises, is no longer able to carry excess currency issuance. China's current economy-driven model cannot be separated from the continuous excess of money. Otherwise, the price index of people's livelihood will rise out of control. What to do? This is the macro RMB continued to oversupply need to find a new reservoir of the biggest logic.

Second, the reform of the country's financial system has reached a historical stage where it is necessary to increase the weight of direct financing. From a financial perspective, the success of our economy has been supported by a debt-oriented financial model. To put it bluntly, it has been continuously developed through the leveraging of banks by various sectors of society. It is important to know that the all-round development of our society will be at great risk if we rely on debt-oriented finance and reach a certain ratio of leverage and debt. At present, our official leverage ratio of the whole society is close toGDPthe280%. Is this high? If we take the total fixed assets of all resource-based state-owned assets and public goods deposited in China at present1300It's not that high if you use trillions as the denominator. The problem is, in terms of the ability of the state to empower the financial system, even though we are people's government ownership, we can't empower the credit of the financial system indefinitely. So there's a limit to how much space pressure this leverage ratio can take. Higher leverage is no longer an option. The financial system's ability to move up and down property prices has been severely compressed by high leverage ratios.

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